Some tremendous horseracing this week, some phenomenal performances from horse, jockey & trainer. Yesterday, the 2yo filly Fairy Godmother produced a scintillating (the name of her dam) performance to win the 6-furlong Albany Stakes. Sure, it was a Group 3, but that looked pure Group 1 in class and style. Next up, it was Inisherin over the same 6-furlong trip dominating the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup (3yo’s only) - this horse was good enough and had sufficient stamina to run a close 6th in the Guineas, but since dropping in trip from a mile he’s been a revelation. I was lucky enough to have a small wager on Soprano(trained by George Boughey) in the Sandringham Fillies handicap over a mile; she looked like a step-up to a mile would suit as she arrived too late to win her previous race, and she had a good draw (18). Jockey Billy Loughnane gave her a great ride, keeping her covered up for most of the race, then pulling her clear for an unimpeded run storming up the middle of the track - terrific!
Today we have afternoon (flat) meetings at Royal Ascot, Newmarket and Redcar. The objective is to find an opportunity to make a profit - there’s no point in making that more difficult by choosing the most competitive races. Yesterday, I thought I had a decent opportunity at Redcar with James McHenry in the 2:50pm race over a mile, and at the furlong pole the horse looked the most likely winner, but then then the fav (and eventual winner) swooped past. I then looked at the 4:35pm race at Market Rasen; a 2m4f Class 5 hurdle race. Race at this level can provide value as they don’t take much winning, but horses at this level can be unreliable, so there’s greater risk. My selection was the oldest horse in the race, the 11yo Kajaki trained by Nick Richards in Cumbria. While I respected the fav (Climate Precedent) it wasn’t an odds-on chance in my opinion, but those short odds meant there was plenty of value elsewhere. Those shorter in the betting than Kajaki either lacked winning form, or had doubts over ability to stay the trip or handle the ground - and Kajaki had ticks for both trip and ground. It was the good-to-firm ground that swung it for me, not many NH horses like fast ground. The risk with Kajaki was lack of a turn-of-foot, he only has one pace; so I hoped he’d be far enough in front on that he wouldn’t be caught on the run-in from the final hurdle. He ran a cracker, went on to lead from before the 2nd-last hurdle and jumped the last 3-lengths ahead, but it wasn’t enough and he was swamped near the line to finish a close 4th - thanks to place-only wagers on the exchanges I only lost a couple of quid.
Newmarket: There’s an interesting 2yo race over 7-furlongs at 2:10pm. All eyes will be on the fav, Ancient Truth who won his debut last month. However, I’m looking atROYAL ALLIANCE trained by George Boughey (he only raced 2 horses y’day, and one won), as he’s booked Pat Cosgrove for the ride and Cosgrove on Boughey 2yo’s is worth noting (3w from 7r this season). Outside of the fav, this race looks weak, and I’m looking at place-only to be in the 1st-2, or a reverse forecast with the fav: 2pts the fav to beat Ancient Truth, and 1pt on those positions reversed. Later at 4:00pm there’s a 6-furlong handicap and the 8yo ABATE trained by Adrian Nicholls could try and make-all the running. This looks a weak Class 3, and Abate loves this track and trip and is in great form: he’s 7/1 and should be in the 1st-3 if not winning.
I can’t see anything much of interest at Redcar, but looking at the entries I’ve noticed Roger Varian has a couple running there - and when he visits Redcar take notice (3w from 4r in past year). Obviously, the odds won’t be great, but he has one running at Newmarket in the 3:30pm and one at Haydock in the 7:45pm (as well as one at Ascot), and this is the sort of day when he could have 2 or 3 winners if you like having a multiple wager.
Royal Ascot has another top-class, and extremely competitive card - if you can find a winner, then good luck to you.
For me today, my main wager will be on ABATE at Newmarket which is currently available at 8/1 to win; and 9/4 (on the exchanges) to be in the 1st-3.
