The declarations for the 2nd day of the Cheltenham Festival closed at 10am this morning. The opening race of the day, the Turners Novices Hurdle over 2m5f, is probably the best novice hurdle of the season, and there were 12 defections. The final 11, who will likely all go to post, look very good and this should be a excellent race. Readers of this blog will know that I’ve considered the Mullins entry FINAL DEMAND would be likely better suited by the 3-mile “Albert Bartlett” run on Friday than this race. That said, he has a great chance of winning this. Personally, I’ve been on THE YELLOW CLAY for some time, and put him up when he was 10/1, and I think he’s the most likely winner if Final Demand is a bit flat-footed. I cannot get a handle on the form of THE NEW LION; the British trained novice hurdlers have been outclassed in recent years and there’s nothing to suggest the tide has turned. The minor placings should be hotly contested, but I cannot see anything other than the front-3 in the market coming 1st, 2nd or 3rd.
The Brown Advisory Novices Chase over 3-mile is next, and I recommended BALLYBURN for this race in December when he was 5/1. Fingers crossed, Majborough should have won the “Arkle” and we will be hoping for the 2nd-leg of the double to come home. This is going to be tough for our selection Ballyburn, as he isn’t as good a chaser as he was a hurdler, but this trip should be in his favour. I’m going to have a “saver” on both BETTER DAYS AHEAD and STELLAR STORY: they both won at the Festival last season, and their chase form is at a similar level to Ballyburn. Put it this way, if Ballyburn wasn’t trained by Mullins I reckon he’d be 9/4 with Better Days Ahead at 9/2 and Stellar Story at 7/1.
I’ve absolutely no idea regards the Coral Cup (handicap) Hurdle; you can’t be expected to have an opinion on every race. The Cross Country (handicap) Chase is a race that I think has no place at the Cheltenham Festival, but I realise plenty of people love it. The centre of the course is likely to be hard and dry, and that sort of ground will suit GALVIN and he’s available with some bookies at 9/2, which looks very generous.
The QM Champion Chase has 8-runners, and let’s be honest JONBON should win this fairly easily. However, he doesn’t like going too quick behind a strong pace-setter as that unsettles his jumping, and he could be put under pressure by SOLNESS who will go off very quick. After the Irish Arkle I suggested a wager on MARINE NATIONALE at 12/1 and he’s now 9/2. If you are on at 12’s I’d leave it at that. The fly in the ointment is FOUND A FIFTY: he could be very interesting as he beat Solness in November when giving that horse 7lb, and that form puts him in with a real chance here: I’m taking the 16/1 eachway (quarter-odds a place 1,2,3).
I’m giving both the “Johnny Henderson” handicap chase, and the Champion “bumper” a swerve. both of those races are not my cup of tea.
I will be setting off to Cheltenham around 4pm on Wednesday afternoon, and will be on the course on Thursday and Friday. I will be back tomorrow around noon with the 48hr decs for Thursday, and a last look at Tuesdays races before it all kicks off.
