This is it, the big one - the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival. A day of reputations made, and reputations lost. This is a long week for the punter, and the overall objective is to finish the week ahead - even a small profit is a victory. For those new to my horseracing posts and betting strategy, I describe myself as a “value” punter; I look for opportunity in the odds. If I think a horse is a 2/1 chance and the betting has it at 9/2 then I’m all over it. If I think a horse is a 2/1 chance, and the betting has it at 4/5 then I give that horse a swerve. In the latter instance, I then look for an eachway selection which may - if fate plays into our hands - provide us with a decent winning wager. Historically, I’ve measured my performance against stake of a 2pt win wager and 1pt ew, and you won’t see me suggesting a 10pt wager on a 4/6 chance to get me into profit.
The 48hr decs for Thursday are out, and the biggest surprise is no GAELIC WARRIOR in the Ryanair Chase, and I must admit that I cannot remember the last time an “Arkle” winner didn’t run at the following years’ Festival when not carrying an obvious injury. All the races on Thursday look to be very competitive, and I love trying to crack the handicaps. My early selection for the Pertemps Hurdle BUGISE SEAGULL is still in; and I’m glad to see the Stayers’ Hurdle will have a really good field of entries. There appear to be some speculative entries (GA Law for example) as the “Stayers” is considered a weak Grade 1, but it’s 3 miles run at a strong pace with the last half-mile being uphill, and there’s no hiding place in this race. Onto today’s racing.
Supreme Novices Hurdle: KOPEK DES BORDES should win this, but the reason that he’s 4/5 and not 4/7 is that he could be unsettled by the occasion. As such, he wears a hood for the 1st time and that should do the trick. I’ve not had a wager already on the fav, I’ve only recommended WILLIAM MUNNY at 12/1 EW (see Part 7 of the antepost blogs). I reckon either William Munny or Romeo Coolio will follow the fav home, so I’m having a couple of straight forecasts.
KOPEK DES BORDES to beat WILLIAM MUNNY & ROMEO COOLIO - 2 F/C’s at 1pt = 2pts staked
Arkle Novices Chase: Readers are already on the fav MAJBOROUGH antepost at 5/1, and again antepost at 9/4; and I’m not recommending another wager in this.
Ultima Handicap Chase: this is one of my favourite races of the Festival. I recommended an EW wager on BROADWAY BOY (see Part 7) at odds of 12/1. I’m adding two others to the wager: HENRY’S FRIEND 1pt EW at 12/1 (6-places with Bet365), and SEQUESTERED 1pt EW at 14/1 (6-places Bet365). Henry’s Friend is a prominent runner and bold jumper of a fence, who will stay this 3m 1f trip well; and Sequestered looks to be improving rapidly and should sit off the pace and stay on strong.
Mares’ Hurdle: Let me be clear - in my opinion LOSSIEMOUTH is not an OR160 hurdler. I have her about 151-153 which puts her about 5lb ahead of Jade De Grugy. However, the horse I consider to have the most “potential” is JULY FLOWER who is a French import with just the one run “under rules” in Ireland since joining Henry de Bromhead. I’m having 1pt ew on JULY FLOWER at 8/1 (3-places Bet365).
Champion Hurdle: I’ve 1pt EW on STATE MAN at 6/1 placed when 3-places were available (now it’s 1st & 2nd only). I cannot see CONSTITUTION HILL not winning this, I expect him to win by about 6-lengths at least.
Fred Winter handicap hurdle: I’m giving this race a miss.
NH Handicap Chase: this is the 1st year it will be run as a handicap, and we have 18 runners going to post. They are all novice chasers, and it’s also professional jockeys now (it used to be amateurs), so expect a reasonable pace to be set. I’m going to give this race a miss as there’s a few horses in this that probably should not be running in a race of this quality, and we could have more mishaps than usual.
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