There’s just 9 days to go, including today, till the opening day of the Festival. So I will concentrate on some individual handicap races, and endeavour to find some value. Fingers crossed, I will identify the winner of the race, but I will be just as happy to suggest a successful eachway (win & place) wager on a horse that comes 4th on the day and I’ve advised a wager at 25/1 (5th odds a place). Don’t forget that a £5 eachway wager (£10 staked) on a 25/1 chance returns £60 if placed.
Day-3 Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Final over 3-mile: this is one of my favourite races of the Festival. I’ve tipped the winner of this race a number of times at decent odds, since the first time I found the winner of the race in Kayf Aramis in 2009. The last time being 2023 winner THIRD WIND (see my blog http://waywardlad.blogspot.co.uk) who won the race at 25/1.
For those who have been reading my horseracing blogs over the past 10+ years, you will know that 3-mile hurdle races are a particular favourite of mine. It takes a special horse to win a hurdle race at 3-miles, requiring a combination of speed and extreme stamina. What makes the “Pertemps Final” intriguing is that you are looking for such a horse that HASN’T won recently. The last horse to win the Final having won LTO (last time out) was Presenting Percy in 2017, and in-hindsight he was incredibly well handicapped on OR146. But the horse must have shown the ability to win a race as competitive as this; as such no winner since Buena Vista in 2011 has won this race with less than 10st 10lb in the saddle.
To win this race, you have to be in it, and being a handicap those at the bottom are likely not to qualify on the day. I’m looking for a horse that stays 3-mile well, runs prominently (Third Wind didn’t lead until the final strides, but was mid-division from half-way), and is likely to be well handicapped. Usually (as with Monmiral last season) that means having some good graded form in the book from previous seasons.
Last April, the result of the Grade 1 novice hurdle at Aintree over 2m4f was 1st Brighterdaysahead; 2nd Staffordshire Knot; 3rd Bugise Seagull - and it’s the latter I’m interested in. He was 50/1 in that G1 race, and for the next couple of races he was kept at 2m4f. Then on 29Dec, he tried 3-mile for the 1st time at Doncaster where he was a good 3rd in a strong handicap. He then qualified for the final when 2nd LTO over 3-mile; for both of those races he carried 12st, but in the Final he’s been allocated OR139 which is a weight of 11st 1lb. He stays the 3-mile trip very well, staying on in both those races when he was giving rivals a lot of weight. He is 25/1 NRNB across the board, and 33/1 NRNB with Ladbrokes but they only offer 4-places EW.
He looks the sort who will be staying on strong up the hill, and should be in the 1st-5 home. Please watch the replays of these races (via Sportinglife.com) and see for yourself. He isn’t on anyone’s radar as his trainer usually only has 1 or 2 runners at the Festival, but that he sent this horse to Musselburgh in Scotland to qualify, and he was ridden with some force there to guarantee qualifying without winning was very interesting to me. I’ve taken 25/1 NRNB, but I expect he could go 33/1 or longer just because he’s not from a fashionable trainer, and if he goes 33/1 with a bookie paying 5-places then I will double my stake.
The problem of not proof-reading! £5 ew on a 25/1 chance that comes 4th returns £30 and not £60. I had the £10 staked number in my head when multiplying by 5 and adding the stake.