Yesterday’s blog was more of a catch-up on recent developments, and today’s blog is expanding on that and identifying some additional angles. We’re quickly approaching the “cut-off” date when (historically) 95% of Cheltenham Festival winners will have had their final preparation run. That day is Saturday 22nd February.
Supreme Novices Hurdle : not an easy race to judge this, as the novice hurdle form can be difficult to rate. I’m not overly convinced by the current fav KOPEK DES BORDES, and that was never a Grade 1 hurdle he won LTO; he has to be opposed as he’s “evens” with most bookies. All the market leaders - on my ratings - are fairly evenly matched, so I shall wait until the field thins out a bit more.
Arkle Novices Chase: As per yesterday’s blog, I’m on MAJBOROUGH. He looks the real thing, and a good judge suggested he’s the Gold Cup winner come March 2026. There’s no doubt that SIR GINO is a very talented horse, but I have them equal (on ratings) and so I have to oppose Sir Gino as he’s the current 4/6 fav, whereas Majborough is available at 9/4.
Mare’s Hurdle: The is an interesting betting race, when you consider that the current market leaders - Brighterdayshead and Lossiemouth - will almost certainly contest the Champion Hurdle instead. So let’s look at the race without them. The French import JULY FLOWER looked interesting when winning her debut race for Henry de Bromhead, and last years Triumph Hurdle 2nd KARGESSE will surely come on for her seasonal debut when 2nd to TAKE NO CHANCES on 18th Jan. I’m interested in all 3 of those: with a slight preference for KARGESSE who has festival form (odds of 7/1 available with BetVictor).
Champion Hurdle: STATE MAN is my eachway wager - he’s available at 6/1.
National Hunt Novices Chase: this is an odd race, and it may be worth waiting until closer to the day; but you cannot ignore the potential of HAITI COULEURS who is a course winner, and ticks a lot of boxes. Odds of 6/1 are available, and while this looks “skinny”, there’s not much else of interest.
Turners Novices Hurdle (2m5f): Current fav is FINAL DEMAND, and while he looked a seriously good hurdler LTO, I think he’s destined for the 3-mile Albert Bartlett. With Kopek Des Bordes almost certainly going for the “Supreme”, there is scope for a punt at decent odds. I’ve been a fan of THE YELLOW CLAY for some time, and this unbeaten hurdler looks the type to take a lot of beating. He’s available at 10/1 (Ladbrokes) and 8/1 elsewhere. And I don’t think you can ignore SIXMILEBRIDGE; he easily put-away POTTERS CHARM at Cheltenham LTO, and he’s improved with every run this season: odds of 16/1 is available with several bookies.
Brown Advisory Novices Chase (3-mile): as per yesterday’s blog, I’m on BALLYBURN. He’s a decent 3-mile chaser, possibly not an exciting one, but he will grind out a win as he showed LTO. If I was going to oppose him, it would be with one of the Gordon Elliott pair: BETTER DAYS AHEAD or CROKE PARK, they’re evenly matched and not far off the same level of form as BALLYBURN.
Champion Chase: I’m all over the place on this race. My head says JONBON is nailed-on the most likely winner, but he’s odds-on. This race has a history of being a minefield for fav’s, and so he has to be opposed. SOLNESS has been a revelation this season now that he’s got his act together and improved his jumping. Right now, if I had to place an eachway wager on this race, it would be on MARINE NATIONAL at 12/1; he improved with every run this season, and is he’d got after Solness LTO a bit earlier, he may well have caught him. What to make of GAELIC WARRIOR, I’ve no idea. Last season, I thought he was possible the best Arkle winner we’d seen for some time, but his head seems to be in the wrong place, and he cannot be trusted: he could come last in this race, or win it by 10+ lengths.
Those that I’d advise taking the current odds about are:
MAJBOROUGH in the Arkle at 9/4
KARGESSE in the Mare’s Hurdle at 7/1
HAITI COULEURS in the NH Novices Chase at 6/1
THE YELLOW CLAY in the Turners Novices Hurdle at 10/1 (eachway)
MARINE NATIONALE in the Champion Chase at 12/1 (eachway)
How do you bet on horses for races so far away such as majborough for the 2026 and/or 2027 gold cup??